Effective determination of pre-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease by symptoms and CT features: a multicenter cross-sectional study
Original Article

Effective determination of pre-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease by symptoms and CT features: a multicenter cross-sectional study

Rong You1#, Chu Qin2#, Min Lu3#, Lirong Huang2, Weijuan Xu3, Lu Liu4, Yanting Liu4, Jintao Dai5, Jie Wang5, Yu Ding2, Yuanyuan Wang6, Haixia Mao7, Yu Zhang4, Haoda Yu2, Tao Bian2

1Department of Respiratory Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Jiangnan University, Wuxi, China; 2Department of Respiratory Medicine, The Affiliated Wuxi People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Wuxi, China; 3Department of Respiratory Medicine, Xinan Hospital, Wuxi, China; 4Department of Respiratory Medicine, Wuxi Ninth People’s Hospital, Wuxi, China; 5Department of Respiratory Medicine, Hudai Hospital, Wuxi, China; 6Lung Function Laboratory, The Affiliated Wuxi People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Wuxi, China; 7Department of Imaging, The Affiliated Wuxi People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Wuxi, China

Contributions: (I) Conception and design: T Bian; (II) Administrative support: T Bian; (III) Provision of study materials or patients: C Qin, L Huang, M Lu, W Xu, J Wang, L Liu, Y Liu, J Dai, Y Ding, Y Wang, H Mao, Y Zhang, H Yu, T Bian; (IV) Collection and assembly of data: R You; (V) Data analysis and interpretation: R You; (VI) Manuscript writing: All authors; (VII) Final approval of manuscript: All authors.

#These authors contributed equally to this work.

Correspondence to: Tao Bian, MD. Department of Respiratory Medicine, The Affiliated Wuxi People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, No. 299 Qingyang Road, Liangxi District, Wuxi 214023, China. Email: btaophd@sina.com.

Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often experience a progressive loss of lung function, and it is difficult to prevent disease progression once diagnosed. Therefore, it is urgent to accurately identify patients with pre-COPD. Various subtypes of pre-COPD have been studied, among which the subtype characterized by chronic cough and sputum, and spirometric small airway dysfunction (SAD) has a higher proportion of progression to COPD and a wider scope of identifying patients with high risk. Given that chest computed tomography (CT) screening is widely done nowadays, this study aimed to identify pre-COPD among symptomatic patients with existing CT.

Methods: We enrolled 219 patients from different regions of Wuxi with chronic cough and expectoration, who are undergoing screening chest CT, and divided them into normal, non-COPD with SAD and COPD group, based on pulmonary function test (PFT) results. The baseline data, PFT results and CT parameters of each group, were collected. Original images were transferred to a workstation to automatically segment lung structures, then quantitative parameters were derived from parametric response mapping (PRM), airway parameters and small pulmonary vessel parameters. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to select the parameters for multivariate model construction, which were then used to identify pre-COPD presence.

Results: Ten parameters were combined to construct the pre-COPD diagnostic model of spirometric SAD. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.9146 (sensitivity 0.8689, specificity 0.8788). A model incorporating three parameters was constructed to determine the presence of COPD (AUC 0.8669).

Conclusions: Our diagnostic models can identify pre-COPD among symptomatic patients with existing CT.

Keywords: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); pre-COPD; spirometric small airway dysfunction (spirometric SAD); quantitative computed tomography (quantitative CT); pulmonary function test (PFT)


Submitted Jul 03, 2025. Accepted for publication Sep 15, 2025. Published online Nov 26, 2025.

doi: 10.21037/jtd-2025-1354


Highlight box

Key findings

• We developed and validated two quantitative computed tomography (CT)-based diagnostic models. The first model, incorporating ten parameters, effectively identified individuals with pre-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (pre-COPD), defined by the presence of chronic respiratory symptoms and spirometric small airway dysfunction (SAD) but a preserved ratio (forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity ≥0.7), with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.9146. The second model identified patients with COPD from those without, with an AUC of 0.8662.

What is known and what is new?

• It is known that pre-COPD represents a high-risk state preceding irreversible airflow limitation, but its identification remains challenging. Spirometric SAD, coupled with symptoms like chronic cough and sputum, is a recognized high-risk subtype with a significant progression rate to COPD. Chest CT is widely used for lung cancer screening but its role in pre-COPD identification is underexplored.

• This study is novel in constructing and validating accessible diagnostic models based on quantitative CT parameters to stratify symptomatic patients into normal, pre-COPD and COPD groups, leveraging existing CT resources.

What is the implication, and what should change now?

• The findings imply that quantitative analysis of routine chest CT scans can provide a valuable, adjunctive tool for early COPD risk stratification in symptomatic individuals, potentially enabling earlier intervention before significant functional decline.

• Clinicians should consider integrating quantitative CT analysis into the assessment of symptomatic patients with available chest CTs, even when spirometry is normal, to identify high-risk pre-COPD individuals who may benefit from closer monitoring and risk management.


Introduction

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous pulmonary disease characterised by chronic respiratory symptoms (cough, expectoration, and dyspnoea) and persistent, progressive airflow obstruction resulting from an abnormal airway (bronchitis and bronchiolitis) and alveolar (emphysema) (1). The overall prevalence of spirometry-defined COPD was 8.6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.5–9.9%], accounting for 99.9 (95% CI: 76.3–135.7) million people with COPD in China, according to the latest research (2). Epidemiological data indicate that COPD is the leading cause of morbidity, mortality, and healthcare use worldwide (3).

People with COPD experience a progressive loss of pulmonary function, and once diagnosed, modifying the disease progression is difficult (4). Rather than an accelerated decline rate of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) in the more severe disease, a decline in pulmonary function occurs at a faster rate in the early stages of the disease (5). If the disease is identified early, there is a significant potential for intervention (6). Consequently, there has recently been a general call for efficient identification of high-risk patients with COPD to improve the prognosis of the disease.

Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2022 first proposed the term ‘pre-COPD’, drawing from the concept of ‘pre-disease’ status adopted by other medical disciplines such as pre-diabetes, pre-hypertension, pre-cancer, or pre-eclampsia. Pre-disease in these disciplines does not mean that all of the subjects will develop the disease; however, it classifies a population particularly at risk for the disease and needs closer follow-up and risk management. The pre-COPD phase refers to a period of identification of individuals of any age with respiratory symptoms, with or without detectable structural and/or functional abnormalities, who, in the current absence of airflow obstruction, may develop persistent airflow limitation over time, that is, COPD (7). The prevalence of pre-COPD without airflow obstruction in the Spanish general population has been reported to be 22.3% (8), which suggests that the general population in pre-COPD is numerous. Therefore, it is of great significance to effectively identify patients with “pre-COPD”.

However, at present, it is difficult to establish an objective and comprehensive evaluation of “pre-COPD” with a clear definition of “respiratory symptoms” and “detectable structural or functional abnormalities”. Consequently, researchers have proposed the concept of GOLD 0 to help identify patients with pre-COPD (9). GOLD 0 is defined as a stage in which risk factors (smoking) and symptoms (chronic cough and phlegm) are present. FEV1/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) is equal to or greater than 0.7. Similarly, nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (NOCB), another specific subtype of pre-COPD, is characterised by chronic cough and sputum production for at least 3 months, persisting for at least 2 years, with FEV1/FVC exceeding 0.7 (10). However, these subtypes identify people with pre-COPD based solely on their symptoms, covering only a small subset of those who eventually progress to COPD (9). In 2022, GOLD introduced the concept of preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) as a newly identified subtype of pre-COPD, defined as pulmonary function conforming to FEV1/FVC ≥0.7 and FEV1 <80%pred (9). This subtype emphasizes functional abnormalities in patients with pre-COPD. However, many knowledge gaps regarding this category persist, as many of these individuals will eventually exhibit normal spirometry (11,12).

Recent studies have identified spirometric small airway dysfunction (SAD) as an important functional abnormality in pre-COPD and defined another subtype of pre-COPD (13,14). This subtype takes into account both symptoms and functional abnormalities of pre-COPD, encompassing patients with chronic cough, sputum, and spirometric SAD, yet maintaining FEV1/FVC ≥0.7. Notably, a 5-year follow-up study reported that 27.8% of such patients developed COPD during the follow-up period compared with 6.6% in the PRISm group (13). In addition, in China, the latest China Lung Health study reported prevalence rates of 5.5% for PRISm and 7.2% for pre-COPD (defined as patients with respiratory symptoms and spirometric SAD, but FEV1/FVC ≥0.7) among 50,991 adults over the age of 20 years, respectively (14). This finding suggests that the phenotype characterised by spirometric SAD addresses the limitation that PRISm cannot eventually progress to COPD, thereby broadening the scope of identifying patients with pre-COPD. Therefore, it is more efficient to identify pre-COPD patients with the definition of “chronic cough and sputum, pulmonary function indicating SAD, and FEV1/FVC 0.7”.

Notably, as chest computed tomography (CT) is an important tool for lung cancer screening, it has been included in the routine physical examination of Chinese residents (15). We suppose that chest CT may serve as an adjunct tool for pre-COPD identification in symptomatic patients with accessible CT data, particularly when spirometry is unavailable.

However, there is a scarcity of CT studies focusing on the identification of pre-COPD. Leveraging quantitative analysis of lung parenchyma, bronchi, and pulmonary blood vessels in chest CT, this study aimed to construct a pre-COPD diagnostic model based on the regression of functional small airway disease (fSAD) dysfunction. We hypothesised that identifying pre-COPD among patients already have undergone chest CT may add clinical value to existing imaging resources. We present this article in accordance with the STROBE reporting checklist (available at https://jtd.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/jtd-2025-1354/rc).


Methods

Characteristics of participants

From August 2021 to August 2024, 405 patients with chronic cough and expectoration (for at least 3 months and lasting for at least 2 years), who have undergone screening chest CT, at the Physical Examination Centre and Respiratory Department of Wuxi People’s Hospital and Community Health Service Center (including Wuxi Ninth People’s Hospital in the west of Wuxi and Xinan Hospital in the east of Wuxi) were included in this study. According to the pulmonary function results, the patients were divided into three groups: FEV1/FVC ≥0.7 and normal small airway function group, FEV1/FVC ≥0.7 and abnormal small airway function group, and FEV1/FVC <0.7 (COPD) group. Forty-nine patients were excluded based on the following exclusion criteria: (I) inability to cooperate with the dual-gas phase of the chest CT examination; (II) software analysis of poor CT image quality; (III) underlying pulmonary diseases, including lung parenchyma, lung cancer, pulmonary interstitial fibrosis, pulmonary infection, thoracic spine deformity, pleural effusion, pulmonary hypertension, severe tuberculosis, bronchiectasis, and asthma; and (IV) a history of thoracic surgery. In total, 219 participants were enrolled in this study (Figure S1). The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and its subsequent amendments. The study was approved by the ethics board of the Affiliated Wuxi People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (No. KY24065), the ethics board of Xinan Hospital (No. 2024000), the ethics board of Wuxi Ninth People’s Hospital (No. KS24093) and the ethics board of Hudai Hospital (No. 2024-KY-001). All patients provided written informed consent to participate and publish.

Questionnaire survey

The questionnaire included questions on age, sex, weight, height, and smoking status. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated by dividing the weight by the height squared (kg/m2). The pack-years was calculated by multiplying the number of packs smoked per year by the number of years they have smoked.

Pulmonary function tests (PFTs)

All PFTs were performed within 1 week before or after CT scanning. The procedure was performed using the German JAEGER MS-PFT instrument. We have carried out unified training for the personnel of pulmonary function examination in each center, requiring that (I) blow at the fastest speed to blow out the expiratory peak; (II) exhale to residual air level, plateau for more than 2 seconds; (III) repeat the operation more than twice, FVC variation rate <5% or absolute value <100 mL, to ensure the accuracy and consistency of the final inspection results. We included the following pulmonary function parameters: FEV1/FVC, FEV1%, maximal mid-expiratory flow (MMEF) [forced expiratory flow (FEF) 25–75%], and maximum expiratory flow (MEF) 25, 50, and 75. We assessed SAD using two of the three spirometry indices MMEF, FEF50%, and predicted FEF75% <65%, as reported in previous studies (16,17).

CT scanning

All patients underwent breath-hold training before scanning to make sure they held their breath at the end of a deep inhale and exhale. CT scans of the inspiratory and expiratory chest were performed in all patients using the 128-slice helical CT scanner (SOMATOM go.Fit and SOMATOM perspective 128). After completing the CT scans of the thorax, one radiologist evaluated the image quality and excluded the image data that produced respiratory artifacts.

Image analysis

The raw Dicom data of the CT images were transferred to the workstation (Dexin FACT-Digital Lung workstation, Xi’an, China) for parametric response mapping (PRM) analysis. The voxels were divided into three categories according to CT values on paired respiratory CT images, which were: (I) emphysema; voxels less than or equal to −950 HU on the inspiratory image and less than −856 HU on the expiratory image; (II) fSAD; voxels greater than −950 HU on the inspiratory image and less than or equal to −856 HU on the expiratory image; and (III) normal lung; voxels greater than −950 HU on the inspiratory image and greater than −856 HU on the expiratory image. We calculated the volume percentage of each voxel category (PRMempha%, PRMfSAD%, PRMnormal%) (18) (Figure S2). Airways were automatically segmented, and medium-size airway parameters, including the mean wall thickness (WT), lumen diameter (LD), and wall area ratio (WAR) of the fifth-generation bronchus, were recorded. To measure the small pulmonary vessels, we restructured the pulmonary vascular vessels and selected three levels for counting. The upper cranial slice was taken approximately 1 cm above the upper margin of the aortic arch, middle slice approximately 1 cm below the carina, and lower caudal slice approximately 1 cm below the right inferior pulmonary vein (19). These CT images were analysed using a semiautomatic image-processing program. Cross-sectional area (CSA) <5 referred to the total CSA of vessels <5 mm2 of the three slices, and %CSA <5 referred to the percentage of the CSA <5 to the total lung area in the selected slices. The above parameters were calculated at the level of the whole, left, and right lung and in each lung lobe, respectively.

Statistical analysis

Based on pilot data, we anticipated moderate effect sizes (Cohen’s d =0.5–0.8) for key CT parameters between pre-COPD and control groups. For analysis of variance (ANOVA) with three groups (α=0.05, power =0.8), 64 participants per group were required to detect an effect size of f=0.35 (medium effect). Accounting for 20% attrition, we targeted ≥77 participants per group. For multivariable logistic regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) selection, we adhered to the events per variable (EPV) criterion. With an estimated 77 cases of spirometric SAD (primary outcome), we conservatively limited the model to ≤7 predictors (EPV >10). Final enrollment (N=219) exceeded minimum requirements across all comparisons: normal 68, non-COPD with SAD 77, COPD 74. This provided >90% power to detect area under the curve (AUC) ≥0.8 in ROC analysis for pre-COPD discrimination. The Shapiro-Wilk test was used to assess the normality of continuous variables. For non-normally distributed variables, median and interquartile range (IQR) were presented, while for normally distributed variables, mean ± standard deviation (SD) were presented. Levene’s test was used to assess the homogeneity of variance across groups. ANOVA was used for normally distributed continuous variables with homogeneous variance across groups to test for differences between the groups. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used for other continuous variables. Categorical variables are presented as counts (%) and were tested using the Chi-squared test or, if appropriate, Fisher’s exact test. P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. To analyse the correlation between pulmonary function parameters and chest CT factors, Pearson’s correlation coefficients were calculated, and P values were adjusted using the Bonferroni correction.

Model construction

The entire dataset was divided into two new sets by stratified random sampling, with four-fifths (N=175) assigned as the training set and one-fifth (N=44) as the test set. We adopted a two-step strategy for dimension reduction and variable selection. First, we used the LASSO to solve collinearity problems between variables and selected the most valuable variables as candidates for further regression analysis (1). Univariate regression analysis was performed on the training set to identify the independent determinants of outcomes. Multiple comparisons were adjusted using the false discovery rate method (measured by adjusted P value) to control the overall false-positive rate at the 5% level (2). Variables with adjusted P<0.05 in univariate analysis were introduced into a multivariate model. Then, variance inflation factors (VIFs) were calculated to test the collinearity between variables. The R software, version 4.2.2 (glmnet package), was used to perform the analysis.


Results

Comparison of demographic, PFT characteristics, and CT parameters among the three groups

A total of 219 participants were grouped, based on the PFT results, into normal participants (n=68), non-COPD with SAD participants (n=77), and COPD patients (n=74). Significant differences in the demographic characteristics, except height (P<0.05), were observed, as presented in Table 1. Table 2 (including CT parameters of the whole lung, left lung and right lung) and Table S1 (including CT parameters of each lung lobes) present the significant differences in the PRM values and parts of the airway (mainly based on the parameters of the right lung and right upper lobe) and vascular parameters (mainly based on the percentage of the pulmonary vessel area). We discovered that the difference in the PRM values between the three groups was more significant than that in the airway parameters, and the difference in the vascular parameters seemed to be the least significant; however, it is still clear that the small blood to total pulmonary vessel volume ratio decreased as the disease progressed.

Table 1

Comparison between demographic and PFT characteristics

Characteristics Normal (n=68) Non-COPD with SAD (n=77) COPD (n=74) P
Age, years 56.75±7.51 59.67±8.47 64.49±7.75 <0.001***
Height, m 1.7 (1.65, 1.75) 1.7 (1.67, 1.73) 1.7 (1.64, 1.73) 0.77
Weight, kg 75.11±9.26 69.68±9.3 65.61±11.23 <0.001***
BMI, kg/m2 25.95 (23.77, 27.48) 24.54 (22.31, 26.12) 23.39 (20.66, 25.53) 0.001**
Smoke 28 (58.33) 42 (73.68) 36 (87.8) 0.008**
Pack-years 7.5 (0, 20.62) 20 (0, 31.25) 30 (18.75, 50) <0.001***
FEV1% 89.48 (82.35, 93.42) 79 (72.22, 83.86) 60.1 (46.3, 68.07) <0.001***
FEV1/FVC% 85.02 (80.62, 88.62) 77.53 (74.8, 81.23) 62.44 (50.51, 67.8) <0.001***
MMEF75/25% 90.65 (74.15, 98.75) 59.6 (51.1, 64.2) 32.8 (21.4, 51.2) <0.001***
MEF50% 77.95 (66.95, 96.45) 58.2 (48.2, 63.5) 32.8 (18.2, 50.3) <0.001***
MEF75% 96.95 (73.92, 115.25) 70.8 (58.1, 88.4) 40.7 (24.7, 60.6) <0.001***

Data are presented as mean ± SD, median (IQR), or n (%). Statistically significant variables are marked as **, P<0.01; ***, P<0.001. BMI, body mass index; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; FEV1, forced expiratory volume in 1 second; FVC, forced vital capacity; IQR, interquartile range; MEF, maximum expiratory flow; MMEF, maximal mid-expiratory flow; PFT, pulmonary function test; SAD, small airway dysfunction; SD, standard deviation.

Table 2

Comparison of CT parameter between the three groups

CT parameters Categories Normal (n=68) Non-COPD with SAD (n=77) COPD (n=74) P
Airway parameters all_WT (mm) 1.185 (1.1511, 1.2154) 1.1994 (1.1666, 1.2428) 1.1704 (1.1391, 1.2165) 0.047*
r_WT (mm) 1.196±0.0575 1.2175±0.0635 1.1783±0.0576 0.007**
l_WT (mm) 1.1807±0.0467 1.1918±0.0695 1.1713±0.0619 0.25
all_LD (mm) 3.8916±0.3821 4.1968±0.3983 4.1782±0.5994 0.002**
r_LD (mm) 3.8477 (3.559, 4.079) 4.1828 (3.9665, 4.466) 4.1296 (3.7817, 4.571) 0.001**
l_LD (mm) 3.9189±0.4036 4.2378±0.4507 4.2598±0.6324 0.001**
all_WAR (%) 0.6237±0.0287 0.6054±0.0277 0.602±0.0453 0.002**
r_WAR (%) 0.6258±0.0337 0.6087±0.0287 0.6039±0.0439 0.008**
l_WAR (%) 0.6192±0.0314 0.5988±0.0315 0.5953±0.0469 0.003**
PRM parameters PRMnormal all (%) 84.9928 (72.4371, 92.1128) 59.8344 (43.5158, 65.8054) 35.7217 (30.3742, 46.7297) <0.001***
PRMnormalr (%) 84.0888 (70.7304, 91.5395) 56.4228 (42.9128, 65.8761) 36.6681 (30.5875, 45.2145) <0.001***
PRMnormall (%) 83.4428 (72.9175, 92.5807) 58.1573 (43.7311, 66.9591) 35.8192 (30.2051, 48.9074) <0.001***
PRMemphaall (%) 1.432 (0.2033, 4.3468) 1.6244 (0.5463, 13.4741) 21.9819 (12.0119, 33.2456) <0.001***
PRMemphar (%) 1.781 (0.2385, 4.545) 1.4897 (0.3978, 12.9497) 21.5249 (11.3214, 32.4491) <0.001***
PRMemphal (%) 1.5239 (0.1768, 4.9134) 1.7786 (0.6543, 12.9848) 22.8423 (10.1119, 34.2754) <0.001***
PRMfSADall (%) 14.702 (6.703, 23.5428) 36.3229 (28.3042, 45.3717) 37.4614 (34.6121, 41.7973) <0.001***
PRMfSADr (%) 15.7707 (7.2217, 24.6808) 37.9637 (29.5962, 44.4814) 37.7592 (34.9721, 42.6604) <0.001***
PRMfSADl (%) 13.5662 (6.4373, 25.0857) 34.4498 (27.5932, 44.3754) 37.42 (34.4753, 40.8155) <0.001***
Vessel parameters all_vesAR (%) 0.0032 (0.0025, 0.0061) 0.0027 (0.0021, 0.0043) 0.0029 (0.0018, 0.0052) 0.03*
all_vesCR (%) 0.0037 (0.0032, 0.0048) 0.0036 (0.003, 0.0046) 0.0033 (0.0025, 0.0046) 0.34
r_vesAR (%) 0.0032 (0.0025, 0.0063) 0.0028 (0.0019, 0.0043) 0.0028 (0.0018, 0.0054) 0.03*
r_vesCR (%) 0.0038 (0.0032, 0.0046) 0.0034 (0.0029, 0.005) 0.0033 (0.0027, 0.005) 0.48
l_vesAR (%) 0.0031 (0.0024, 0.0057) 0.0026 (0.0019, 0.0043) 0.0026 (0.0016, 0.0051) 0.03*
l_vesCR (%) 0.0036 (0.003, 0.0048) 0.0036 (0.0029, 0.0042) 0.0031 (0.0023, 0.0044) 0.39

Data are presented as mean ± SD or median (IQR). Statistically significant variables are marked as *, P<0.05; **, P<0.01; ***, P<0.001. all, whole lung; AR, percentage of pulmonary vessel area; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; CR, percentage of pulmonary vessel number; CT, computed tomography; fSAD, functional small airway disease; IQR, interquartile range; l, left lung; LD, lumen diameter; PRM, parametric response mapping; r, right lung; SAD, small airway dysfunction; SD, standard deviation; ves, vessel; WAR, wall area ratio; WT, wall thickness.

Correlation between CT parameters and PFT characteristics

The results are presented in Table 3 (including CT parameters of the whole lung, left lung and right lung) and Table S2 (including CT parameters of each lung lobes). Among them, 22 CT parameters significantly correlated with FEV1%, 25 with FEV1/FVC, 28 with MMEF75/25, 27 with MEF50, and 23 with MEF75. A few medium-sized airway values showed a statistically significant but weak correlation with FEV1% and FEV1/FVC (P<0.05, r<0.3). Some small pulmonary vessel values showed statistically significant positive correlations with MMEF75/25 and MEF50. However, these correlations were weak (r<0.3). Compared with medium-sized airway values and small pulmonary vessel values, PRM values were more strongly correlated with pulmonary function results, and the correlation was moderate (r=0.3–0.6, P<0.05).

Table 3

Correlation between CT parameters and PFT characteristics

CT PFT
P r
FEV1% FEV1/FVC MMEF25–75 MEF50 MEF75 FEV1% FEV1/FVC MMEF25–75 MEF50 MEF75
all_WT 0.61 0.02 0.95 0.59 0.41 0.0617 0.2271 −0.0081 0.0651 0.0982
r_WT 0.77 0.04 0.87 0.81 0.36 0.0338 0.2019 −0.0200 0.0278 0.1064
l_WT 0.55 0.14 >0.99 0.61 0.52 0.0732 0.1555 0.0002 0.0621 0.0778
all_LD 0.55 0.85 0.35 0.61 0.96 −0.0728 0.0229 −0.1092 −0.0621 0.0067
r_LD 0.70 0.97 0.51 0.71 0.82 −0.0452 0.0057 −0.0812 −0.0432 0.0269
l_LD 0.15 0.52 0.09 0.21 0.47 −0.1528 −0.0787 −0.1745 −0.1366 −0.0899
all_WAR 0.54 0.77 0.43 0.61 0.96 0.0745 0.0337 0.0951 0.0621 0.0064
r_WAR 0.85 0.69 0.55 0.84 0.77 0.0229 0.0469 0.0728 0.0246 −0.0329
l_WAR 0.21 0.45 0.18 0.24 0.50 0.1357 0.0922 0.1426 0.1295 0.0841
PRMnormal all <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.3583 0.4471 0.5097 0.4550 0.4410
PRMnormalr <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.3398 0.4383 0.5001 0.4370 0.4251
PRMnormall <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.3744 0.4454 0.5083 0.4563 0.4411
PRMemphaall <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 −0.3783 −0.4327 −0.3764 −0.3304 −0.3811
PRMemphar <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.002 <0.001 −0.3642 −0.4061 −0.3509 −0.2830 −0.3393
PRMemphal <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 −0.3840 −0.4184 −0.3698 −0.3025 −0.3618
PRMfSADall 0.02 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 −0.2174 −0.2879 −0.4259 −0.3673 −0.3219
PRMfSADr 0.051 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 −0.1923 −0.2947 −0.4158 −0.3700 −0.3113
PRMfSADl 0.02 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 −0.2276 −0.2934 −0.4161 −0.3784 −0.3156
all_vesAR 0.56 0.52 0.02 0.02 0.32 0.0693 0.0768 0.2152 0.2203 0.1148
all_vesCR 0.80 0.83 0.38 0.52 0.71 −0.0296 −0.0252 −0.1034 −0.0768 −0.0430
r_vesAR 0.61 0.69 0.047 0.043 0.49 0.0601 0.0480 0.1952 0.1977 0.0862
r_vesCR 0.67 0.70 0.33 0.51 0.56 −0.0508 −0.0447 −0.1132 −0.0824 −0.0707
l_vesAR 0.56 0.38 0.02 0.02 0.21 0.0694 0.1039 0.2146 0.2213 0.1354
l_vesCR 0.91 >0.99 0.41 0.56 0.92 −0.0143 −0.0016 −0.0989 −0.0704 −0.0127

P means P value, and r represents Spearman r correlation values. all, whole lung; AR, percentage of pulmonary vessel area; CR, percentage of pulmonary vessel number; CT, computed tomography; FEV1, forced expiratory volume in 1 second; fSAD, functional small airway disease; FVC, forced vital capacity; l, left lung; LD, lumen diameter; MEF, maximum expiratory flow; MMEF, maximal mid-expiratory flow; PFT, pulmonary function test; PRM, parametric response mapping; r, right lung; ves, vessel; WAR, wall area ratio; WT, wall thickness.

Construct regression models of SAD for early detection of COPD

We finally selected age, weight, smoke, packyear, ur_LD, ul_WAR, ll_WAR, all_PRMnormal, ur_PRMfSAD, lr_PRMfSAD as input variables for the regression model of SAD (Figure S3A, Tables 4,5), and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the single variables against the model (Figure 1A). The AUC was used to assess the model discrimination. In the training set, the AUC was 0.9146 (95% CI: 0.8573–0.9718) (sensitivity 0.8852, specificity 0.8182) and 0.9421 (95% CI: 0.8574–1) in the validation set.

Table 4

Univariate regression of 15 variables associated with SAD in training dataset

Variable Univariate model Multivariate model Final model
OR (95% CI) P Adjusted P OR (95% CI) P VIF OR (95% CI) P VIF
Age 1.06 (1.01, 1.12) 0.02 0.03 1.08 (0.99, 1.17) 0.36 1.42 1.07 (0.99, 1.16) 0.09 1.35
Weight 0.94 (0.90, 0.98) 0.003 0.007 0.96 (0.89, 1.03) 0.07 1.20 0.95 (0.89, 1.02) 0.19 1.17
Smoke 2.74 (1.20, 6.28) 0.02 0.03 1.80 (0.33, 9.91) 0.24 1.87 1.70 (0.31, 9.34) 0.54 1.85
Pack-years 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) 0.007 0.01 1.05 (1.00, 1.10) 0.50 2.12 1.05 (1.00, 1.09) 0.044 2.09
ur_LD 6.22 (2.50, 15.51) <0.001 <0.001 1.59 (0.28, 9.05) 0.044 1.62 1.71 (0.30, 9.56) 0.54 1.60
ul_WAR 0.00 (0.00, 0.04) 0.01 0.02 0.00 (0.00, 4.16) 0.60 1.55 0.00 (0.00, 7.47) 0.08 1.50
ll_WAR 0.00 (0.00, 0.00) 0.002 0.006 0.00 (0.00, 5.68×104) 0.07 1.71 0.00 (0.00, 1.22×105) 0.48 1.62
all_vesCR 0.00 (0.00, 3.91×1063) 0.65 0.70
ur_vesAR 0.00 (0.00, 1.04×104) 0.07 0.09
mr_vesAR 5.08×1024 (0.00, 2.47×10105) 0.55 0.63
lr_vesCR 0.00 (0.00, 6.01×1059) 0.89 0.89
all_PRMnormal 0.91 (0.88, 0.94) <0.001 <0.001 1.01 (0.87, 1.18) 0.85 16.28 0.97 (0.91, 1.05) 0.49 3.85
ul_PRMnormal 0.92 (0.89, 0.95) <0.001 <0.001 0.97 (0.87, 1.08) 0.54 9.92
ur_PRMfSAD 1.10 (1.06, 1.15) <0.001 <0.001 1.06 (0.98, 1.14) 0.14 3.41 1.06 (0.98, 1.15) 0.12 3.51
lr_PRMfSAD 1.10 (1.06, 1.15) <0.001 <0.001 1.05 (0.95, 1.17) 0.34 6.19 1.04 (0.94, 1.14) 0.44 4.89

In the multivariate model, high VIFs (>10) were observed for all_PRMnormal and ul_PRMnormal. Furthermore, the correlation between these two variables was high (>0.8). Thus, we excluded ul_PRMnormal. Finally, in the pre-COPD model, 10 variables were included. all, whole lung; AR, percentage of pulmonary vessel area; CI, confidence interval; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; CR, percentage of pulmonary vessel number; fSAD, functional small airway disease; OR, odds ratio; LD, lumen diameter; ll, left lower lung; lr, right lower lung; mr, right middle lung; PRM, parametric response mapping; SAD, small airway dysfunction; ul, left upper lung; ur, right upper lung; ves, vessel; VIF, variance inflation factor; WAR, wall area ratio.

Table 5

Model performance univariate regression and multivariate variable model associated with spirometric small airway dysfunction in the training dataset

Model Variable Training set Validation set
AUC 95% CI Cut-off Specificity Sensitivity AUC 95% CI Cut-off Specificity Sensitivity
Univariate Age 0.5488 0.4371–0.6605 0.9129 0.7105 0.4430 0.7632 0.5873–0.939 0.8239 1.0000 0.6316
Weight 0.5946 0.4807–0.7085 0.5383 0.5263 0.6962 0.8289 0.6722–0.9857 0.9832 1.0000 0.5789
Smoke 0.5123 0.4221–0.6026 0.5618 0.3158 0.7089 0.5974 0.4317–0.7630 0.5618 0.3000 0.8947
Packyear 0.5145 0.4047–0.6243 0.5284 0.4474 0.6203 0.7342 0.5435–0.9249 1.1294 1.0000 0.4211
ur_LD 0.5769 0.4686–0.6853 1.2475 0.7895 0.4051 0.6263 0.3999–0.8528 0.3301 0.4000 0.8421
ul_WAR 0.6156 0.5057–0.7255 0.3616 0.3421 0.8608 0.6158 0.3857–0.8459 0.6628 0.7000 0.7368
ll_WAR 0.5168 0.4047–0.6290 1.0949 0.7895 0.3291 0.3842 0.1555–0.6129 0.6166 0.6000 0.4737
all_PRMnormal 0.4707 0.3495–0.5918 1.9466 0.4474 0.6329 0.9579 0.8877–1 −0.1425 0.9000 0.9474
ur_PRMfSAD 0.6076 0.4996–0.7156 2.4956 0.9474 0.2658 0.8789 0.7033–1 −0.3032 0.8000 1.0000
lr_PRMfSAD 0.5711 0.4644–0.6778 2.7946 0.9737 0.2405 0.9579 0.8811–1 0.0463 0.9000 0.9474
Final model 0.9146 0.8573–0.9718 0.0855 0.8182 0.8852 0.9421 0.8574–1 −0.1222 0.9000 0.8947

all, whole lung; AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval; fSAD, functional small airway disease; LD, lumen diameter; ll, left lower lung; lr, right lower lung; PRM, parametric response mapping; ul, left upper lung; ur, right upper lung; WAR, wall area ratio.

Figure 1 ROC curve of univariate and multivariate models. (A) ROC curve of the univariate and multivariate analyses in the training set in the regression model of spirometric small airway dysfunction. The AUC was used to assess the model discrimination. In the training set, the AUC was 0.9146 (95% CI: 0.8573–0.9718) (sensitivity 0.8852, specificity 0.8182), which had good significance. (B) The ROC curves of the univariate and multivariate analyses in the training set in the regression model of COPD. The AUC of the multivariate model was 0.8662 (95% CI: 0.7902–0.9422) (sensitivity 0.9091, specificity 0.7857). All, whole lung; AUC, area under the curve; l, left lung; CI, confidence interval; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; LD, lumen diameter; ll, left lower lung; lr, right lower lung; PRM, parametric response mapping; SAD, small airway dysfunction; ROC, receiver operating characteristic; ul, left upper lung; ur, right upper lung; WAR, wall area ratio.

The same method was used to discriminate between patients with and without COPD model construction. The predictors were age, l_PRMnormal and all_PRMempha (Figure S3B, Tables S3,S4). The AUC of the multivariate model was 0.8662 (95% CI: 0.7902–0.9422), (sensitivity 0.9091, specificity 0.7857) (Figure 1B) and 0.9583 in the validation set (95% CI: 0.8921–1). Figure 2 shows the nomogram of each model.

Figure 2 Nomogram of the regression models. (A) Nomogram of the regression model of spirometric small airway dysfunction. (B) Nomogram of the regression model of COPD. All, whole lung; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; l, left lung; LD, lumen diameter; ll, left lower lung; lr, right lower lung; PRM, parametric response mapping; SAD, small airway dysfunction; ul, left upper lung; ur, right upper lung; WAR, wall area ratio.

Discussion

In this study, we analysed the correlations between the quantitative CT and pulmonary function parameters and constructed a regression model of SAD using the quantitative CT characteristics that allows the identification of pre-COPD.

The general population in the early stages of COPD is numerous. A UK biobank cohort analysis found that 38,639 (11.0%) of 351,874 participants had PRISm at the beginning of the study (20). Compared to normal spirometry, baseline PRISm was associated with a small but statistically significant increased risk of mortality and adverse cardiovascular and respiratory outcomes (21). Identifying high-risk patients in the early stages of COPD to improve the disease prognosis is necessary.

A clearer definition of pre-COPD based on the effects of potential indicators of increasing risk of COPD development and a diagnostic model involving them are lacking. In 2021, Han et al. reviewed studies on the early stage of COPD progression and proposed a set of clinically implementable thresholds to identify people with pre-COPD by combining symptoms, structural abnormalities, and functional abnormalities (9). As research progresses, the heterogeneity of patients with pre-COPD has become increasingly recognised, and many subtypes of pre-COPD have been explored. Some subtypes are characterised by a high burden of symptoms. Lambert and Bhatt defined “people with clinical symptoms and a history of smoking with normal lung function” as high-risk groups for COPD (22). In 2023, Divo et al. established a simple model for identifying high-risk individuals with chronic airflow restriction in middle-aged smokers, incorporating smoking history, BMI, chronic bronchitis, and FEV1/FVC as predictors, and this model was also well validated in external cohorts (23). However, chest CT features were not included in the model owing to economic considerations, which may reduce the accuracy of the model and narrow the detection range of cases with chronic airflow restriction. Moreover, some subtypes of pre-COPD highlight abnormalities in lung function. Among them, PRISm has been widely utilised in the early stage of COPD research. However, a significant limitation of PRISm is that many individuals identified as PRISm do not develop COPD during follow-up (11). A recent study has reported that using FEV1/FVC before the 10th percentile as a threshold can accurately identify individuals at high risk of developing COPD in the general population, with patients below this threshold having a 36-fold increased risk of developing the disease during an eight-year follow-up period (24). Spirometric SAD is also an important feature in pre-COPD research. One study divided 196 α1-antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) patients into those with normal FEV1/FVC and MMEF (group 1), normal FEV1/FVC and reduced MMEF (group 2), and spirometrically defined COPD (group 3). The results showed that patients in group 2 had worse health status than did those in group 1 and had a greater subsequent decline in FEV1, indicating that a reduction in MMEF is an early feature of lung disease in COPD (25). Many studies have also confirmed that the narrowing and disappearance of small airways occurs before the destruction of emphysema, suggesting an early stage of COPD (26,27). In addition, a recent study indicated that individuals characterised by chronic bronchitis and SAD of lung function were more likely to progress to COPD [hazard ratio (HR) 5.89 and 4.80] (13). Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that SAD represents the early stage of COPD progression, and subtypes characterised by symptoms and SAD can be more efficient in identifying patients with pre-COPD. At the same time, we also acknowledge that there may be other subtypes whose phenotypes have not yet been defined, which will further improve our understanding of the pre-COPD population.

Current researches have revealed several promising biomarkers that might be incorporated to identify patients with pre-COPD or COPD. Machine learning models demonstrated that COPD patients can be classified from controls with >99% accuracy based solely on TRPC6 expression levels in lung tissue (28). A prospective study has showed the potential of sputum nanoparticles as markers of airway inflammation and disease, making it a tool to identify pre-COPD (29). Beyond single-gene biomarkers, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in exhaled breath have been confirmed to be biomarkers for identifying PRISm, enabling early intervention before irreversible lung decline (30). Proteomic and metabolomic analyses further expand the biomarker landscape. MUC5AC, a gel-forming mucin, its ratio to MUC5B serves as a sensitive marker of mucus dysfunction and an increase of the ratio in smokers often indicates the onset of COPD (31). In conclusion, novel biomarkers also offer promising avenues for early COPD detection.

A total of 64 quantitative CT parameters (three medium-sized airway parameters, two vessel parameters, and three PRM parameters were evaluated, and the level of the whole, left, and right lung and each lung lobe) were included in this study. Airway abnormalities in the right lung and right upper lobe appeared to be more significant among the three groups than in other lung regions; Yasunaga et al. discovered that current asymptomatic smokers had a higher percentage of emphysema in the right lung and right upper lobe than did non-smokers (32), indicating that the CT features of the right lung and right upper lobe can better represent the structural changes in the high-risk population of COPD.

Smokers with normal lung function and individuals with mild emphysema show changes in the distal pulmonary vessels (33,34). These may represent the initial stages of COPD development. Previous studies on pulmonary vascular pruning in COPD have shown that %CSA <5 has a relatively weak association with airflow limitation but a strong association with emphysema (35,36). One study reported that pulmonary vascular pruning was more strongly associated with the emphysema phenotype than with the bronchitis phenotype in patients with COPD (37), which is consistent with our results. We hypothesised that pulmonary vascular pruning may be the result of alveolar hyperinflation and vascular compression during gas retention (38). This may explain the inconsistent relationships among peripheral pulmonary vascular alterations, airflow limitation, and emphysema.

The LASSO regression method was used to eliminate highly correlated variables, regardless of the effect of multicollinearity between the variables, to screen the most significantly changed parameters for modelling. When constructing the pre-COPD diagnostic model, we adopted the PRMSAD-related parameters, while PRMempha-related parameters were adopted in the COPD diagnostic model, suggesting that the key factor leading to airflow obstruction in early COPD is SAD rather than emphysema (27). As the disease progresses, emphysema becomes an important cause of air limitation. Small pulmonary vessel parameters were ultimately not included in the model, indicating that vascular parameter changes are not as significant as those in the PRM values (39). Further, CT features of the left lung appeared to be more discriminatory among patients with COPD. Consistent with previous findings, adding CT imaging characteristics to demographic data significantly improved the diagnostic of COPD progression (40).

There are some limitations in this study. This analysis used a post-bronchodilator FEV1-FVC ratio of ≤0.70, cited by the Global Initiative for COPD and frequently used in large databases, which may underestimate the prevalence of COPD among younger people and overestimate its prevalence among older people. Clinical assessment parameters, such as clinical symptoms and the 6-minute walk test, were not included in our classification model, which may limit the interpretation of high-risk COPD. The correlation between the lung function test results and CT parameters was not as strong as that in previous studies, probably because of the relatively small sample size. This was a cross-sectional study of patients with a reduced MMEF, and it is unknown whether these patients developed COPD later in life. Further studies should enrol more participants and follow them up longitudinally to determine whether they develop COPD.


Conclusions

In conclusion, we confirmed that quantitative CT parameters are able to discriminate between the normal, non-COPD with SAD, and COPD groups. The model comprising age, weight, smoke, packyear, ur_LD, ul_WAR, ll_WAR, all_PRMnormal, ur_PRMfSAD, lr_PRMfSAD could distinguish the non-COPD with SAD group from the normal group, while age, l_PRMnormal and all_PRMempha were predictors between the non-COPD with SAD group and the mild to moderate COPD group. This study demonstrated that the utility of quantitative CT for stratifying pre-COPD among symptomatic patients, which may provide additional diagnostic value for the group of patients with chronic cough and expectoration through existing CT scans.


Acknowledgments

None.


Footnote

Reporting Checklist: The authors have completed the STROBE reporting checklist. Available at https://jtd.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/jtd-2025-1354/rc

Data Sharing Statement: Available at https://jtd.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/jtd-2025-1354/dss

Peer Review File: Available at https://jtd.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/jtd-2025-1354/prf

Funding: This study was supported by the Cohort and Clinical Research Program of Wuxi Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University (No. WMCC202315), the Project of Major Program of Wuxi Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University (No. WMCM202309) and Basic Scientific Research Business Fund Project at Central Universities (No. 22520231033).

Conflicts of Interest: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form (available at https://jtd.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/jtd-2025-1354/coif). All authors declare that the present manuscript received the support from the Cohort and Clinical Research Program of Wuxi Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University (No. WMCC202315), the Project of Major Program of Wuxi Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University (No. WMCM202309) and Basic Scientific Research Business Fund Project at Central Universities (No. 22520231033). The authors have no other conflicts of interest to declare.

Ethical Statement: The authors are accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved. The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and its subsequent amendments. The study was approved by the ethics board of the Affiliated Wuxi People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (No. KY24065), the ethics board of Xinan Hospital (No. 2024000), the ethics board of Wuxi Ninth People’s Hospital (No. KS24093) and the ethics board of Hudai Hospital (No. 2024-KY-001). All patients provided written informed consent to participate and publish.

Open Access Statement: This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits the non-commercial replication and distribution of the article with the strict proviso that no changes or edits are made and the original work is properly cited (including links to both the formal publication through the relevant DOI and the license). See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.


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Cite this article as: You R, Qin C, Lu M, Huang L, Xu W, Liu L, Liu Y, Dai J, Wang J, Ding Y, Wang Y, Mao H, Zhang Y, Yu H, Bian T. Effective determination of pre-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease by symptoms and CT features: a multicenter cross-sectional study. J Thorac Dis 2025;17(11):9300-9313. doi: 10.21037/jtd-2025-1354

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